McKinsey-Level Analysis

Couplet Restaurant Business Plan

Comprehensive financial analysis and strategic roadmap for Baku's first couples-only fine dining establishment

Executive Summary

Investment Overview

Total Initial Investment:$1,850,000
Break-even Timeline:18-24 months
Projected ROI (Year 3):22%

Market Opportunity

Target Market Size:45,000 couples
Tourism Growth (2024):+25.9%
Luxury Spending Growth:+39.5%
Market Analysis - Baku, Azerbaijan

Economic Indicators

GDP Per Capita
$7,641
Tourism Revenue 2024
$2B (+39.5%)
Hospitality Spending
$184.50 per capita

Tourism Data

International Visitors
2.6M (+25.9%)
Countries Represented
196
Tourism GDP Contribution
₼8.9B (+28%)

Dining Market

Mid-range Meal (2 people)
60 AZN (~$35)
Premium vs Average
+17.3%
Luxury Focus
Elite Tourism

Customer Segmentation Analysis

Local Elite

Size: ~15,000 couples
Frequency: 2-3x/month
Spend: $200-300/visit

Business Travelers

Size: ~8,000 couples/year
Frequency: 1x/visit
Spend: $300-400/visit

International Tourists

Size: ~12,000 couples/year
Frequency: 1x/visit
Spend: $250-350/visit

Special Occasions

Size: ~10,000 couples/year
Frequency: 1-2x/year
Spend: $400-600/visit
Financial Projections & P&L Analysis

Initial Investment Breakdown

Real Estate & Renovation$800,000
Kitchen Equipment$300,000
Furniture & Interior$250,000
Audio/Music System$150,000
Working Capital$200,000
Marketing & Pre-opening$100,000
Contingency (3%)$50,000
Total Investment$1,850,000

3-Year Revenue Projection

Year 1

Tables: 20 | Avg Check: $280
Occupancy: 65%
Revenue:$2,100,000
Net Profit:-$150,000

Year 2

Tables: 20 | Avg Check: $300
Occupancy: 78%
Revenue:$2,730,000
Net Profit:$218,000

Year 3

Tables: 20 | Avg Check: $320
Occupancy: 85%
Revenue:$3,180,000
Net Profit:$410,000

Monthly Operating Expenses (Steady State)

Staff Costs (35%)

Executive Chef (International)$12,000
Sous Chef$5,500
Kitchen Staff (8)$16,000
Service Staff (12)$18,000
Management$8,000
Total Staff$59,500

Food & Beverage (32%)

Premium Ingredients$35,000
Wine & Spirits$18,000
Total F&B$53,000

Entertainment (8%)

Live Musicians (4 nights/week)$12,000
Special Performances$3,000
Total Entertainment$15,000

Fixed Costs (25%)

Rent (Prime Location)$25,000
Utilities$4,000
Insurance$3,000
Marketing$5,000
Maintenance$3,000
Other Operating$2,000
Total Fixed$42,000
Total Monthly Operating Costs:$169,500
Required Monthly Revenue (Break-even):$242,000
Risk Analysis & Mitigation Strategies

High-Risk Factors

Economic Volatility

Oil price dependency affects local spending power

Mitigation: Focus on international tourism, diversified pricing

High Operating Costs

International staff and premium ingredients

Mitigation: Gradual scaling, local talent development

Market Acceptance

Couples-only concept is untested in Baku

Mitigation: Extensive pre-launch marketing, soft opening

Success Factors

Tourism Growth

25.9% increase in international visitors

Luxury Market Focus

Government prioritizing elite tourism development

Unique Positioning

First couples-only fine dining in region

Operational Strategy & Key Metrics

Seating Configuration

20 Tables Total
40 seats maximum
• 8 Intimate booths (2 seats each)
• 6 Window tables (2 seats each)
• 4 Premium corner tables (2 seats each)
• 2 Private dining rooms (2 seats each)

Service Standards

1.2 Turns/Evening
Extended dining experience
• 2.5-3 hour dining experience
• 1:3 staff-to-guest ratio
• Personalized service protocols
• Sommelier on-site 6 days/week

Revenue Optimization

$280 Average Check
Including wine pairing
• 65% beverage margin
• 28% food cost ratio
• Premium wine selection
• Seasonal menu pricing

Key Performance Indicators

85%
Target Occupancy
12%
Net Profit Margin
$13,000
Daily Revenue Target
24
Covers/Day Break-even
Implementation Timeline & Milestones

Months 1-3

Secure location & permits
Finalize design & construction
Recruit executive chef

Months 4-8

Construction & fit-out
Staff recruitment & training
Menu development

Months 9-10

Soft opening (invite-only)
Marketing campaign launch
Systems optimization

Month 11+

Grand opening
Full operations
Performance monitoring
Strategic Recommendation

Based on comprehensive market analysis and financial modeling, Couplet Restaurant represents a compelling investment opportunity in Baku's growing luxury hospitality sector. The couples-only concept addresses an underserved market segment while capitalizing on Azerbaijan's tourism growth and government focus on elite destination development.

Strong
Market Opportunity
Viable
Financial Model
Manageable
Risk Profile